Article

半导体短缺支撑台湾出口,但下行风险依然存在

Fitch Solutions / Country Risk / 台湾 / Mon 03 May, 2021

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Key View

  • We at Fitch Solutions have revised up our 2021 real GDP forecast for 台湾 to 5.5%, from 3.此前为8%,以解释121年q1的突出表现.
  • We expect 台湾’s growth to continue to be driven by exports over the coming quarters, 受全球半导体短缺的支持, 这反过来又会提振就业前景和可支配收入, 延伸到私人消费.
  • 然而, we highlight downside risks to our forecast as a prolonged drought could slow semiconductor production, and a resurgence of Covid-19 cases domestically could lead to tighter coronavirus containment measures.

我们Fitch Solutions现在预测台湾的实际GDP将增长5%.5% in 2021, compared to 3.在121年第一季度的增长超过8%之后.2% y-o-y. Over the coming months, we expect export growth to remain robust amid rising demand for semiconductors, 在供应短缺的背景下. Export-driven growth bodes well for the labour market, and will likely support private consumption. 更强劲的经济活动也将提振投资者情绪, which will likely see further growth in gross fixed capital formation amid a low interest rate environment.

Exports To Bolster Growth

台湾-对实际GDP增长的贡献,pp (2017-2021)

f = Fitch Solutions forecast. 资料来源:国家统计,惠誉解决方案

在121季度,台湾的实际GDP增长了8%.同比增长2%和12%.季度环比经季节调整的年化增长率为9%, exceeding our expectations, 扩大所有支出组成部分. 经济增长由净出口带动,对经济增长作出了贡献.占总体增长率的5个百分点, which was supported by increased semiconductor exports amid a global shortage due to increased demand for consumer electronics during lockdowns and aggravated by supply problems from 日本. 资本形成总额占2.0pp to headline growth, 由机器设备投资支撑, 运输设备及施工, 政府消费贡献为0.6pp to growth. 而私人消费贡献了1.0pp to growth, 反映了国内需求的逐步复苏, we note that this came from a low base following four consecutive quarters of contraction.

Strongest Growth Since 2010

台湾 - Real GDP, % chg y-o-y

资料来源:国家统计,惠誉解决方案

我们预测净出口将贡献2.预计2021年将增长9个百分点,相比之下为2个百分点.7pp in 2020. 台湾出口平均增长24个百分点.5% in Q121, and we believe demand for semiconductors (around 35% of total exports in 2020) and a global growth recovery will continue to drive 台湾’s exports growth, although we note that this could be capped slightly in H221 due to strong base effects. 随着全球许多经济体建设其5G能力, demand for semiconductors for 5G-compatible infrastructure and devices will likely rise further over the coming quarters. This will be further bolstered by continued demand for work from home devices, with Covid-19 cases rising further despite the rollout of vaccinations globally.

半导体需求将支撑出口

台湾 - Exports & Export Order, % chg y-o-y

来源:彭博社,惠誉解决方案

We expect to see a steady economic recovery in 台湾’s key trading partners, 包括中国(占出口总额的28%), 香港(占出口总额的12%)及日本(占出口总额的7%), 进一步支持台湾外需, 包括non-semiconductor澳门永利最老登录入口. Although the growth of export orders - typically a leading indicator for exports growth - has retreated slightly from its peak in January, the elevated figure of 33.3月份同比增长3%表明对台湾出口的需求依然强劲.

Imports To Rise In Tandem

台湾 - Exports & Imports, % chg y-o-y

来源:彭博社,惠誉解决方案

尽管如此,净出口将受到进口增长加快的限制. 进口平均增长了20%.由于三个主要原因,这一数字可能会保持强劲. 第一个, the strong growth in exports suggests greater need for exporters to import inputs (see chart above). 第二个, 油价上涨将增加台湾的进口支出, 鉴于能源进口约占台湾进口总额的10%. Our 石油 & 天然气团队预计布伦特原油均价为64美元.0 per barrel (/bbl) in 2021, around 48% higher compared with an average of USD43.2/bbl in 2020. Third, we expect domestic demand to recover further, which would see imports pick up.

改善就业前景以支持消费

台湾 - 零售 Sales & Unemployment Rate

资料来源:统计部门,惠誉解决方案

台湾’s economic growth will also be supported by recovering private consumption, which we forecast to grow by 2.4% in 2021, from -2.4% in 2020. Domestic private consumption has already been recovering in recent months, growing by 12.1% y-o-y in March. 与此同时,失业率普遍下降,为3.3月份下降了7%,与冠状病毒爆发前的水平差不多. Over the coming months, 我们认为劳动力市场有进一步收紧的可能, especially in export- and semiconductor-oriented sectors as manufacturers look to expand production amid a global semiconductor shortage. The strong employment outlook will likely support consumer sentiment and disposable income, 哪一个对私人消费来说是个好兆头.

That said, private consumption growth will be dragged by the tourism sector (around 5% of GDP), 2021年不太可能完全恢复. 虽然台湾已经与Pulau建立了旅游泡沫, 并正在与日本政府谈判建立泡沫, South Korea, 越南 and Singapore, 台湾 is unlikely to completely open its borders for international travel in the near-term borders given the government’s cautious stance and a slow rollout of the vaccination programme.

强劲的商业情绪预示着投资的好兆头

台湾 - Business Optimism Index

来源:彭博社,惠誉解决方案

我们还预计资本形成总额将保持强劲,并增长6%.0% in 2021, from 5.0% in 2020. Business sentiment will likely recover further on the back of an improving economic outlook, and loose credit conditions help to bolster investment as we expect the Central Bank of the Republic of 中国 (CBC, 台湾)将其基准指数维持在1的历史低点.125% through 2021. The Current and Outlook Business Optimism Indices remained elevated compared to historical levels, coming in at 15.7和8.3月份分别为3家,尽管低于24家的峰值.4 and 18.8 in February. We expect the semiconductor manufacturing sector in particular to drive investments over the coming months, as the companies seek to ramp up their manufacturing capacity to meet the global shortages. For instance, Nanya Technology, 该公司是台湾领先的存储芯片制造商, has already announced its plan to build a TWD300bn (USD11bn) plant in New Taipei over seven years, starting in 2021.

我们预测政府消费将增长2%.0% in 2021, compared with a 2.7% increase in 2020. We expect defence spending to rise rapidly over the coming months amid rising cross-strait tensions. 据台湾国防部称, Beijing has been sending aircrafts into 台湾’s Air Defense Identification Zone since late 2020. 鉴于来自北京方面的压力越来越大,台湾的预算是10分.2% y-o-y increase its defence spending to around TWD450bn, to strengthen its deterrence. That said, we believe a sharp rise in overall government consumption is unlikely given th在 strong organic economic growth suggests little need for the government to step up its fiscal stimulus measures.

Risks To Outlook

我们对实际GDP增长预测的风险被向下加权. 台湾正面临着50多年来最严重的干旱. Although 台积电制造公司, 台湾(以及全球)最大的芯片制造商, has said th在 company has long prepared for such an event and does not expect to see any material impact on their operations, 台湾的长期干旱可能最终会给出口带来压力, 考虑到半导体的生产需要大量的水. 此外,Covid-19病例再次出现的风险依然存在. 台湾 has reported new Covid-19 clusters linked 台湾-based 中国 Airlines cargo pilots and an airport hotel. 目前疫情基本得到控制, a spread of the coronavirus in community which could lead to a tightening of Covid-19 measures and dampen domestic recovery.

该报告来自惠誉国别风险解决方案 & 行业研究是惠誉解决方案集团有限公司的澳门永利最老登录入口, 英国公司注册编号08789939 ('FSG'). FSG是惠誉评级(Fitch Ratings Inc .)的附属机构. ('Fitch Ratings'). FSG is solely responsible for the content of this report, without any input from Fitch Ratings. 版权所有©2021惠誉解决方案集团有限公司. ©Fitch Solutions Group Limited版权所有. 北柱廊30号,伦敦E14 5GN,英国.

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